As COP29 gears up to kick off on Nov 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, you might either be getting your popcorn ready to watch this new set of climate negotiations unfold or have PTSD from last year when Dubai was flooded with visitors and all anyone could talk about was climate change while you were still wondering, ‘What exactly is a COP?’
In either case, this special edition of Climate Middle East will help you brush up on the history of this unique global convention, understand key concepts and explore how they relate to the region.
👉The Fundamentals
COP stands for ‘Conference of Parties’ and is the official decision making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A ‘Party’ is any country or state that has ratified, accepted, approved, or acceded to the UNFCCC, which 198 parties have. The primary objective of these conferences is to negotiate on various climate-related topics, culminating in a published statement at the end of the two-week event.
Negotiations occur in many formal and informal settings where the statement’s text is debated in excruciating detail. Countries often form alliances depending on the topic and approach the negotiations as a negotiating bloc. For example, ‘G77 and China’ represents a large group of developing countries which generally push for climate finance and technology transfer; The Umbrella Group is a coalition of non-EU developed countries which generally favor market mechanisms.
A ‘COP’ doesn’t necessarily refer to only the UNFCCC. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) held its 16th meeting, COP16, in Colombia this year and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) will host its COP in Saudi Arabia this December. Each COP has a different set of parties and agreements, although there may be overlap in terms of themes and desired outcomes.
📅 Brief History
The first COP was held in 1995 in Berlin and has evolved significantly since then. Noteworthy COPs include:
COP3, 1997, Kyoto: Resulted in the Kyoto Protocol which committed industrialized countries to reduce emissions by at least 5% vs. 1990 levels in a top-down directive
COP15, 2009, Copenhagen: Widely seen as a failure for not being able to produce a binding agreement, COP15 did introduce the objective of keeping warming to 2°C and resulted in industrialized countries committing to mobilizing USD 100 billion to fund climate action in developing nations
COP21, 2015, Paris: Resulted in the landmark Paris Agreement which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels, with each country sharing bottom-up individual commitments
COP26, 2021, Glasgow: Resulted in Glasgow Climate Pact which agreed on the ‘Rulebook’ for Paris and explicitly mentioned phase down of coal and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
💰Value of COPs
As one can tell from the timeline above, progress is slow. Decisions are made through consensus and getting 198 parties to agree is a monumental task. Often, hours if not days are spent on one word leading to vague and ‘lowest denominator’ commitments. There is no formal enforcement mechanism for those not fulfilling their pledges. The process relies on voluntary commitments, peer review and international pressure to translate commitments into real emission reductions.
On a more practical level, many critics point out the hypocrisy of having 1000s of people take emission heavy flights to a new location every year to discuss reducing emissions. Moreover, there has been scrutiny on the number of fossil fuel related attendees growing at each COP, with concerns around their lobbying power.
On the other hand, many argue that the value of COPs is not just in the official negotiations but in its ability to continue the ‘drumbeat’ of climate action. Every year, there is increased public awareness and an increased level of ambition. Albeit slow, the incremental progress is still progress in the right direction. Working through a consensus based process helps otherwise small and vulnerable groups have a voice, bringing in themes such as justice, peace, youth, equality to the platform which would otherwise be lost.
⭐Important Concepts
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Global Stocktake: Under the Paris Agreement, each country is required to submit an NDC outlining their individual commitment to reduce GHG emissions based on their own national circumstances and capabilities. These are meant to be updated every 5 years, with more ambitious goals in each iteration. The next set of NDCs are due in February 2025.
Every five years, a 'Global Stocktake' report assesses whether the collective impact of individual NDCs aligns with the goal of limiting global temperature rise to between 1.5°C and 2°C. The inaugural Global Stocktake, conducted at COP28, revealed that despite some progress, current NDCs fall short of meeting the Paris Agreement's objectives.
Mitigation and Adaptation: Climate action is generally separated into two categories, although there are overlaps between them. Mitigation refers to activities that help reduce GHG emissions (e.g transitioning to renewable energy). Adaptation refers to measures taken to prepare for climate impacts (e.g. climate-resilient agricultural practices). There is growing pressure to direct attention and financing towards adaptation, especially for vulnerable states.
Loss and Damage: Refers to the compensation for climate related losses in vulnerable countries who have historically contributed the least towards climate change but bear more of the economic and social cost. The loss and damage fund was formed at COP27 and operationalized at COP28, with USD 700m pledged in financing (including USD 100 m from UAE). There is still discussion around how this will be mobilized - who receives funding, in what form, covering which types of losses and damages etc.
‘Developed’ vs ‘Developing’: This debate is centered around the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ which acknowledges that all countries have a shared responsibility to address climate change but their responsibility to act is dependent on their historical contribution to climate change and their current capabilities to implement.
This raises complex questions about the classification of countries as 'developed' or 'developing.' For instance, should GCC nations, with their high GDPs but 'developing' status in UN frameworks, still be categorized as developing economies? Should emerging economies like China and India be held accountable for pursuing carbon-intensive development paths similar to those previously taken by developed nations?
‘Phase out’ vs ‘Phase Down’: A critical aspect of COP negotiations is reaching consensus on specific terminology, particularly regarding the future of fossil fuels. The debate centers on whether to commit to a complete ‘phase-out’ or a gradual ‘phase-down’ of fossil fuel usage, with each approach carrying significant global economic implications.
Proponents of a ‘phase-out’ approach argue that scientific evidence clearly indicates the necessity of ending fossil fuel use to meet the Paris Agreement goals and that ‘phase down’ offers excessive leeway. Conversely, advocates for a ‘phase-down’ approach argue that certain hard-to-abate sectors still require fossil fuels and a more gradual transition is needed.
At COP28, negotiators settled on ‘transitioning away’ from fossil fuels, as a compromise that avoided explicitly using either ‘phase-out’ or ‘phase-down.’
🌎GCC at COPs
UAE was the first GCC country to ratify the Paris Agreement. Today all 6 GCC countries have submitted their NDCs and most have committed to reaching net-zero by 2050 or 2060. Ahead of COP28, UAE updated its NDCs with more ambitious emission cuts, although Climate Action Tracker’s analysis still rates it as ‘critically insufficient.’
Qatar hosted the first COP in the region in 2012 (COP18), and more recently UAE hosted COP28 in 2023. In negotiations, GCC generally sides with the ‘phase-down’ approach which commits to emissions reductions balanced with energy security and economic prosperity. GCC countries have signed various other pledges and declarations such as the Global Methane Pledge and launched regional efforts such as the Middle East Green Initiative.
In terms of climate finance, UAE pledged USD 100 million to the loss and damage fund and announced ALTERRA, a USD 30 billion private climate fund focused on the Global South. KSA is one of the top 20 contributors to different multilateral institutions and most countries have seen large scale investment in renewable energy in the region and internationally.
✍Key outcomes at COP28
COP28 was a landmark moment for the region, allowing them a platform to showcase climate leadership. Key outcomes of COP28 include:
First COP to explicitly address fossil fuels, although short of ‘phase-out’, the ‘UAE Consensus’ agreed to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’
USD 700 m pledged towards loss and damage
Agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030
Several declarations were signed to cut sector and gas specific emissions such as methane, agricultural emissions, emissions from cooling etc.
Published first-ever global stocktake, calling on countries to accelerate their action
First COP to have a Youth Climate Champion and a Youth Stocktake. Also the first time topics such as waste management, food and agriculture, health, local and sub-national governments and faith were part of the official agenda
As we look towards COP29, it's clear that while progress in international climate negotiations is often incremental, these conferences play a crucial role in maintaining global focus on climate action, fostering international cooperation, and gradually increasing ambition in addressing the climate crisis.